Frequently Asked Questions
Answers to common questions you may have about the data on our website. . .
Expected Points Added (EPA) evaluates every play based on its situational context (Down, Distance, Yard Line, and Time Remaining). It calculates how much a play increased or decreased a team's likelihood of scoring on that drive. By netting out offensive and defensive performance values, any final Net EPA result above zero represents some situational matchup advantage. The net calculation on the Matchup Engine card accounts for both offensive and defensive contributions as follows:
Net Pass EPA = Offensive Pass EPA Per Attempt − Defensive Pass EPA Per Attempt Allowed
Net Rush EPA = Offensive Rush EPA Per Carry − Defensive Rush EPA Per Carry Allowed
These rate metrics provide a direct, context-aware measure of which team has the passing or rushing advantage.
Net Pass EPA Thresholds
| EPA ≥ 0.10 | High passing value advantage over opponents. |
| −0.10 < EPA < 0.10 | Average passing value. No significant edge. |
| EPA ≤ −0.10 | Poor passing value relative to opponents. |
Net Rush EPA Thresholds
| EPA ≥ 0.05 | Elite rushing value advantage over opponents. |
| −0.05 < EPA < 0.05 | Average rushing value. No significant edge. |
| EPA ≤ −0.05 | Poor rushing value relative to opponents. |
Pass and Rush Efficiency measures the pure structural movement of football down the field on a per-play basis, independent of down and distance.
Net Pass Efficiency represents a team's passing yards gained per dropback minus the yards allowed to opponents, adjusted for sack yardage to provide a real picture of aerial dominance. We include sack yardage lost in the calculation, which is often more predictive of team success than raw passing yards.
Net Pass Eff = Team PY/A - Defensive PY/A Allowed
Where: PY/A = (Pass Yards - Sack Yards) / (Attempts + Sacks)
A higher number indicates better team pass efficiency.
Net Rush Efficiency measures a team's rushing yards gained per carry minus the yards allowed to opponents, providing a direct indicator of a team's ability to control the line of scrimmage and maintain ground dominance.
Net Rush Eff = Team RY/A - Defensive RY/A Allowed
Where: RY/A = Rush Yards / Carries
A higher number indicates better team rush efficiency.
Net Pass Efficiency Thresholds
| Eff ≥ 0.45 | Elite net passing velocity. Dominant aerial attack relative to opponents. |
| −0.45 < Eff < 0.45 | Average net passing velocity. No significant edge. |
| Eff ≤ −0.45 | Poor net passing velocity. Opponents hold a clear aerial advantage. |
Net Rush Efficiency Thresholds
| Eff ≥ 0.25 | Elite net rushing velocity. Dominant ground game relative to opponents. |
| −0.25 < Eff < 0.25 | Average net rushing velocity. No significant edge. |
| Eff ≤ −0.25 | Poor net rushing velocity. Opponents hold a clear ground advantage. |
The market's Implied Total (Offense) and Opponent Implied Total (Defense) for a team are calculated as follows:
Favorite = ( Total Line + ABS(Point Spread) ) / 2
Underdog = ( Total Line - ABS(Point Spread) ) / 2
Implied Total isolates the exact number of points the oddsmakers believe a specific offense can squeeze out of the opposing defense.
Opponent Implied Total defines what the market considers a successful day for a specific defensive unit.
The market's average Implied Total for all home teams is calculated as follows:
Avg Home Implied Total = (Avg Total Set - Avg Home Line) / 2
Our Matchup-Adjusted YPA and YPC are calculations used to measure pass or rush opportunity in a weekly matchup. It projects a team's efficiency ceiling for a specific matchup by aggregating their offensive per-play rates with the yards allowed by the opposing defense, identifying the high-potential areas of a team's game plan.
Matchup-Adjusted YPA = Team PY/A + Opponent PY/A Allowed
Matchup-Adjusted YPC = Team RY/C + Opponent RY/C Allowed
Where: PY/A = (Pass Yards - Sack Yards) / (Attempts + Sacks), RY/C = Rush Yards / Carries
A higher number indicates a favorable rushing or passing matchup for the team.
The Mismatch Edge also compares each team's matchup-adjusted rate against the league-wide baseline PY/A for that week. The surplus or deficit from the baseline determines a signal label for each team:
Passing Signals
| Elite Air Runway | Exploding passing efficiency matchup. Great for chunk-play WR props / game Overs. |
| Passing Surplus | Clean efficiency advantage. Offensive unit is heavily favored to move the ball via the air. |
| Symmetrical Air Matrix | Balanced matchup. The offensive pass unit matches the defensive pass unit perfectly. |
| Secondary Restraint | Passing bottleneck. Opponent defense suppresses efficiency; risk of drive-stalling. |
| Deflated Air Matrix | Severe aerial disadvantage. Avoid passing yards player props. High risk of turnovers/sacks. |
Rushing Signals
| Trench Dominance Matrix | Massively unhinged run-game advantage. Highly predictive of clock control/game Unders. |
| Rushing Surplus | Consistent run-game advantage. Clean lanes expected for the primary back. |
| Line Symmetrical Baseline | Standard battle in the trenches. Expected league-average execution. |
| Trench Bottleneck | Stubborn front-seven matchup. The defense is built to completely eliminate the interior run. |
| Stalled Ground Vector | Utter ground shutdown expected. Offense will be forced into a highly predictable passing script. |
The Velocity + Value cards on the Breakdown page pair two complementary metrics—Net Efficiency (velocity) and Net EPA (value)—to reveal whether a team's production is structurally sound or potentially unstable. Efficiency measures raw per-play yardage dominance (how far the ball moves), while EPA measures context-weighted point production (how much each play is actually worth given down, distance, and field position).
Efficiency is your Trench Baseline—it proves how cleanly a team gains ground on an average snap.
EPA is your Context Baseline—it proves how effectively a team turns snaps into expected points on the scoreboard.
When both metrics agree, the signal is clear: a team is either genuinely elite or genuinely poor. When they diverge, it exposes hidden risk or hidden upside that the box score alone won't tell you. Each team receives an independent signal label based on where its EPA and Efficiency fall relative to the thresholds below.
Passing Signals
| True Alpha | EPA ≥ 0.10 and Eff ≥ 0.45. Elite on both axes. Sustainable production with no regression flags. |
| High-Wire Act | EPA ≥ 0.10 but Eff ≤ −0.45. Scoring points despite poor yardage rates. Likely driven by turnover luck or big plays—regression candidate. |
| Unlucky Juggernaut | EPA ≤ −0.10 but Eff ≥ 0.45. Moving the ball efficiently but not converting to points. Positive regression candidate—scoring should catch up. |
| Structural Deficit | EPA ≤ −0.10 and Eff ≤ −0.45. Poor on both axes. Fundamental weakness with no hidden upside. |
| Developing | One or both metrics in the neutral zone. No clear signal yet. |
Rushing Signals
| True Alpha | EPA ≥ 0.05 and Eff ≥ 0.25. Elite on both axes. Sustainable production with no regression flags. |
| High-Wire Act | EPA ≥ 0.05 but Eff ≤ −0.25. Scoring points despite poor yardage rates. Likely driven by turnover luck or big plays—regression candidate. |
| Unlucky Juggernaut | EPA ≤ −0.05 but Eff ≥ 0.25. Moving the ball efficiently but not converting to points. Positive regression candidate—scoring should catch up. |
| Structural Deficit | EPA ≤ −0.05 and Eff ≤ −0.25. Poor on both axes. Fundamental weakness with no hidden upside. |
| Developing | One or both metrics in the neutral zone. No clear signal yet. |
We analyze a rolling three-year window of historical data, plus the current season, to calculate the performance of every point spread.
Win Percentage Thresholds
| Home Win% > 55% | Home-favored trend. |
| Visitor Win% > 55% | Visitor-favored trend. |
| 50% – 55% | Neutral play with slight bias. |
Game Classifications
| Strong-Home | Home win% > 55% AND margin of cover > 1.5 points. |
| Home | Home win% > 55% but margin < 1.5 points. |
| Strong-Visitor | Away win% > 55% AND margin > 1.5 points. |
| Visitor | Away win% > 55% but margin < 1.5 points. |
| Neutral | All other games. |
Our game predictions are powered by a custom Machine Learning algorithm designed to identify statistical value against the spread (ATS), on the Money Line (ML) or Straight Up (SU). We process over 2.5 million unique data points across 360 proprietary trend features spanning 20+ years of NFL data.
The Engine: The core of our system supports multiple machine learning algorithms, including Gradient Boosted Decision Trees and Logistic Regression, each excelling at finding complex patterns in structured data. The engine evaluates thousands of feature combinations to find the subset with the strongest predictive signal, then trains on historical outcomes to identify market inefficiencies.
The Output: The model runs separately for each objective—ATS and Straight Up—producing a predicted probability per game. ATS picks are rated 1-3 stars based on relative confidence that week. SU picks are rated 1-5 stars based on absolute confidence thresholds. Money Line picks are derived by comparing the model's SU probability against the line's implied probability, rated by expected value tier.
Expected value determines if a position is profitable in the long run by comparing your perceived probability of an outcome against the probability reflected in the odds.
Value Tiers
| EV > 0.10 | High Value. A significant market error has been detected. |
| 0.05 < EV ≤ 0.10 | Medium Value. A solid, reliable edge. |
| 0.00 < EV ≤ 0.05 | Small Value. A minimal edge. |
| EV ≤ 0.00 | Lay Off. No long-term expected profit. |
Units Profit measures the cumulative return of our ATS predictions using a flat 1-unit stake at standard -110 odds (risk 1.1 to win 1.0). For each prediction:
Units Profit = (Wins × 0.91) − Losses
At -110, you must hit 52.38% of selections to break even. Because the per-game edge is small, a single season may show a modest return even at a solid hit rate, but the edge compounds over volume.
Example: A season with 131 wins and 119 losses (52.4% accuracy) produces:
Units Profit = (131 × 0.91) − 119 = 119.2 − 119 = +0.2 units
Over three seasons at the same rate (~394 wins, ~356 losses), the same edge yields approximately +2.1 units.
Our Team Quality Ranking provides an objective measure of outright strength by aggregating total victories, strength of schedule, and scoring dominance, filtering out the noise of lopsided scheduling to reveal a team's true competitive baseline.
Team Quality Ranking = (Team Wins × 10) + Opponents Wins [in all other games] + (Team Point Difference × .20) / Team Games Played
Our Spread Performance Ranking identifies statistical value by weighting cover frequency alongside margin of victory and opponent quality, pinpointing teams that consistently outperform oddsmakers' expectations regardless of their win-loss record.
Spread Performance Ranking = (ATS Win Percentage × 45) + (Average ATS Margin × 35) + (RPI × 20)
Our EPA Rating prioritizes passing execution over rushing execution acknowledging that while both are important, a team's ability to move the ball through the air and defend the pass has a greater correlation with winning than the ground game.
EPA Rating = (Net Pass EPA × 60) + (Net Rush EPA × 40)
The higher the rankings, the stronger we think the team is.
The core idea of the Relativity Index is to combine two things into a single number: a team's own performance (how much they outscored their opponents on average) and the quality of their opponents (how good their opponents were when they played against everyone else).
Relativity Index (REL) = Average PPG difference + Opponent Average PPG difference [in all other games]
Where: Average PPG difference = (Total Points Scored - Total Points Allowed) / Games Played
A higher number is better.
Passer Rating difference is obtained by subtracting a team's Defensive Passer Rating from its Offensive Passer Rating. This statistic has proven to have a direct, and incredible, correlation to victory and championship success.
Passer Rating Difference (PRD) = Team Offensive PR - Team Defensive PR Allowed
Passer Rating (PR) uses the NFL formula: ((A + B + C + D) / 6) × 100
Where:
The maximum possible quarterback rating for the NFL is 158.3.
Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt (ANYA) is a highly-regarded and more comprehensive passing statistic than simple yards per pass attempt. It's often cited in analytics as having a strong correlation with points scored and winning football games.
Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt (ANYA) = (Pass Yards - Sack Yards) + (20 × Pass TDs) - (45 × Ints) / (Pass Attempts + Sacks)
The higher the number, the more efficient a team's passing game is.
The value of the Negative Pass Play Rate is that it provides a direct measure of a team's or quarterback's ability to avoid the most costly outcomes of a passing play.
Negative Pass Plays (NPP) = (Sacks Suffered + Interceptions) / Pass Attempts
A lower percentage indicates less mistake plays.
Our Disruptive Play Rating (DPR) is a measure of a defense's ability to create negative outcomes for the opposing offense. It quantifies defensive aggression by aggregating the per-game frequency of takeaways, sacks, and tackles for loss, providing a unified metric for a unit's ability to stall drives and create high-leverage turnovers.
Disruptive Play Rating (DPR) = (Takeaways / Games) + (Sacks / Games) + (Tackles For Loss / Games)
The higher number, the more disruptive a team's defense is. Note that for seasons prior to 2012 we do not include Tackles For Loss.
Yards Per Point Allowed (YPPA) is a team-wide measurement of ability to keep opponents off the scoreboard.
YPPA = Yards Allowed / Total Points Allowed
The higher the number, the more difficult a team makes it for opponents to score points.
Yards Per Point Scored (YPPS) is a team-wide measurement of ability to turn yards into points.
YPPS = Offensive Yards / Total Points Scored
The lower the number, the more efficiently a team scores points.
The Win Pct column represents a team's against the spread (ATS) winning percentage.
ATS Winning Percentage (WP) = (Wins + (Pushes / 2)) / (Wins + Losses + Pushes)
Winning percentages are color coded: > 55% in green and < 45% in red
Average Margin (MAR) measures the average directional bias in the bookmaker's line for that team. It quantifies a team's scoring efficiency relative to the spread, measuring the mean distance by which a team exceeds or falls short of market expectations per game.
Margin = Final Score Margin - Point Spread
Average Margin (MAR) = Total Margin / Total Games Played
The Average Margin (MAR) measures bias (directional error).
Our Predictability Score (PS) measures the degree to which a team's results consistently deviate from the market's pre-game expectations. It quantifies a team's market volatility by calculating the average absolute deviation between final scoring margins and the closing point spread, identifying teams that consistently perform in alignment with, or in defiance of, oddsmakers' expectations.
PS = Average(|Final Score Margin - Point Spread|)
Lower PS = Higher Predictability. Higher PS = Higher Unpredictability.
The Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) is a measure of a team's strength of schedule and how a team performs against that schedule. It provides a weighted metric that evaluates a team's performance by balancing their own winning percentage against the collective record of their opponents and their opponents' opponents.
RPI = (WP × 0.25) + (OWP × 0.50) + (OOWP × 0.25)
Where: WP = Win Percentage, OWP = Opponents' Win Percentage, OOWP = Opponents' Opponents' Win Percentage
We offer programmer access to the raw data that we use for our trends through an Application Programming Interface (API).
You can purchase an API access key from our Season Pass page. The key must be appended to each web request by adding the querystring parameter ApiKey=[YOUR_API_KEY_HERE].
All NFL game stats are updated by Wednesday at 6pm EDT.
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