Home Favorite / Away Underdog Performance

10+ 66 games
Home Win % .591
Avg Margin 3.5 pts
Home edge in toss-ups
7.5 to 9.5 60 games
Home Win % .417
Avg Margin -0.6 pts
Dogs covering
6 to 7 86 games
Home Win % .558
Avg Margin 3.1 pts
Home edge in toss-ups
4.5 to 5.5 46 games
Home Win % .435
Avg Margin 1.6 pts
Dogs covering
3 to 4 152 games
Home Win % .510
Avg Margin 1.0 pts
Slight favorite edge
0 to 2.5 108 games
Home Win % .537
Avg Margin 0.5 pts
Slight favorite edge

Away Favorite / Home Underdog Performance

10+ 16 games
Away Win % .406
Avg Margin -1.6 pts
Dogs covering
7.5 to 9.5 19 games
Away Win % .368
Avg Margin 0.0 pts
Big favorites struggle
6 to 7 51 games
Away Win % .500
Avg Margin 1.8 pts
Neutral zone
4.5 to 5.5 36 games
Away Win % .500
Avg Margin -0.5 pts
Neutral zone
3 to 4 147 games
Away Win % .575
Avg Margin 1.3 pts
Away favorites solid
0 to 2.5 66 games
Away Win % .485
Avg Margin -1.7 pts
Slight underdog edge
Even 2 games
Away Win % 1.000
Avg Margin 9.0 pts
Favorites cover well

Line Movement Analysis

Lines Moving Up (More points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
+0.5 to +1 -- -- --
+1.5 to +2 -- -- --
+2.5+ -- -- --
Sharp money often moves against large line shifts

Lines Moving Down (Fewer points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
-0.5 to -1 -- -- --
-1.5 to -2 -- -- --
-2.5+ -- -- --
Reverse line movement signals smart money

Distribution of Win Margins ATS

855 Games Push 1 Pt 2 Pts 3 Pts 4+ Pts 4+ Pct
ATS Win Margin 26 73 64 43 649 .759
While the market is efficient at picking a "middle" number, the actual game outcomes are highly volatile. Most results either "cover with ease" or "miss by a mile," with very little middle ground.

Key Spread Insights

Home Underdogs

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ATS win rate for home dogs getting 3+ points

Road Favorites

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Road favs of 7+ pts struggle to cover

Revenge Games

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Teams facing recent loss to opponent

Post-Bye Week

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Teams coming off bye week ATS